Geopolitics Fuels Fossil Future: BP Raises 2050 Oil and Gas Demand Forecast

Global conflicts and trade wars are inadvertently prolonging the age of fossil fuels, according to a stark new annual outlook from BP. The energy major has upwardly revised its predictions for oil and gas consumption through 2050, a significant shift that casts serious doubt on the international community’s ability to achieve net-zero emissions targets by the mid-century deadline. This revised trajectory points to a major setback for the global energy transition.
The new BP report suggests a slower than anticipated decline in oil use. It projects oil demand reaching 83 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2050, an 8% increase compared to the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is also set to remain stubbornly high, forecast at 4,806 billion cubic meters a year in 2050, up from the prior figure of 4,729 billion cubic meters. Furthermore, the world is now expected to consume peak oil (103 million b/d) in 2030, marking a five-year delay in the crucial pivot away from peak consumption.
BP’s chief economist attributes this recalibration largely to the intense focus on national energy security, spurred by ongoing geopolitical turbulence including the war in Ukraine and Middle East tensions, alongside increasing trade tariffs. These factors are compelling states to secure domestic energy supplies. This security drive could manifest in two opposing ways: some countries might double down on domestic low-carbon electrification to become ‘electrostates,’ while others may opt for the easier route of maximizing domestically produced fossil fuels over relying on volatile imports.
The implications for the climate are severe. BP’s modeling indicates that the world is currently on a path that will breach the cumulative 2∘C carbon budget limit as early as the start of the 2040s. The company warns that the longer the delay in decarbonization, the higher the economic and social cost will be for future generations trying to mitigate temperature rises. To stay within the net-zero goal, oil demand needs to plummet to around 35 million b/d by 2050, a massive undertaking compared to the current forecast.
Even with substantial growth in renewable energy sources—projected to climb from 10% to 15% of primary energy supply by 2035—oil is forecast to retain its position as the single dominant global energy source, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are not anticipated to eclipse oil’s share until the late 2040s. This sluggish turnover rate, coupled with the company’s recent strategic shift to prioritize oil and gas production over its previous green targets, underscores the complex challenges facing the energy sector.