Reduced Birthrates in China Create Structural Challenges for Dairy Industry

Chinese authorities have announced provisional tariffs of up to 42.7% on certain European Union dairy imports following an anti-subsidy investigation. The measures, effective Tuesday, range from 21.9% to 42.7%, with most companies paying around 30%. The decision is widely seen as retaliation for EU electric vehicle tariffs.
The European Commission has rejected the tariffs as illegitimate and poorly substantiated. Officials maintain that the investigation is based on questionable allegations without sufficient supporting evidence. Brussels is examining the decision and preparing formal comments.
Trade friction escalated in 2023 when Europe began investigating subsidies for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. China has responded with tariffs on multiple European products. However, Beijing has occasionally shown flexibility, reducing provisional tariffs in final rulings and exempting certain major producers.
Approximately 60 companies will face the new tariffs at varying rates. Arla Foods will pay between 28.6% and 29.7%. Sterilgarda Alimenti secured the most favorable rate at 21.9%, while FrieslandCampina’s Belgian and Dutch operations must pay 42.7%. Non-cooperative companies automatically receive the highest tariff.
The decision is likely to be welcomed by Chinese producers who are grappling with a glut of milk and falling prices as declining birthrates and more cost-conscious consumers weigh on demand. China, the world’s third-largest milk producer, imported $589 million in affected dairy products last year. Authorities urged producers last year to rein in output and reduce the number of older and less productive cows to address demographic-driven demand challenges.