New research reveals a changing worldview within Australia, with a majority expecting China to be the world’s most powerful country by 2035, while trust in the United States has plummeted to a historic low. These findings highlight a significant recalibration of Australia’s geopolitical outlook.
Just over one in three Australians (36%) now trust the US to act responsibly on the world stage, a substantial 20-point decrease from 2024 and the lowest proportion recorded since polling began in 2005. This decline is particularly evident in confidence regarding the current US President’s international approach, which stands in stark contrast to the higher approval seen for his predecessor. Meanwhile, confidence in the Chinese leader has edged up, leading to an even split on who is considered a more reliable partner.
For the first time since 2020, Australians are equally inclined to perceive China as an economic partner and a security threat. However, a notable segment of the population continues to harbor distrust, believing China will pose a military threat to Australia within the next two decades. Despite the decline in trust in the US, a majority still believes the US would come to Australia’s defense in an attack, though this belief has weakened.
This nuanced public opinion suggests Australians are able to separate the perceived instability of current US foreign policy from the enduring strength of the military alliance. The significant narrowing of the trust gap between Australia’s key security ally and China is a remarkable and noteworthy development, signaling evolving regional dynamics.
