Oil Shock Puts World on Alert as Iran Shows No Sign of Backing Down

Iran’s refusal to de-escalate its military campaign is keeping the world on high alert and oil markets in a state of sustained stress, with Brent crude trading near $100 a barrel Thursday for the second time in a week. The country’s forces continue to strike energy targets across the Gulf with apparent impunity, targeting assets that supply oil to markets across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. The absence of any credible diplomatic process has investors deeply concerned.
Iran struck merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, fuel facilities in Bahrain, and port infrastructure adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. The Thai vessel Mayuree Naree was hit near the strait, trapping three crew members. Iraq halted all oil exports and Oman cleared its main export terminal of vessels as a safety measure.
Brent crude gained 9% Thursday to briefly hit $100.29 before settling at around $98, still up about 6%. West Texas Intermediate rose 8.6% to $94.75. The price has risen from $60 at the start of the year to a weekly peak of $119, with markets remaining highly sensitive to military developments. Iran’s military warned of $200-per-barrel oil.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from reserves held by 32 members. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with deliveries beginning within a week and continuing for about four months. Despite this intervention, prices remained elevated because Iran continued striking new targets.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 a barrel. Deutsche Bank flagged stagflation risks. Asian stock markets fell and European gas prices gained 7.7%.