July to December Progression Shows Steady Erosion of Russian Crude Market Share

The progression of Russian crude imports to India from July through December 2025 reveals a pattern of steady market share erosion following the implementation of US tariffs. While US crude imports to India increased by 65.6% to $8.2 billion during April-December 2025, Russian crude imports contracted by more than 17%, falling from $40 billion to $33.1 billion year-on-year.
December 2025 marked the culmination of this erosion pattern. Russian crude shipments to India totaled $2.71 billion, down 15.15% from $3.2 billion in December 2024. More significantly, monthly values showed progressive decline: $3.62 billion in July, $3.59 billion in August, $3.32 billion in September, $3.56 billion in October, $3.72 billion in November, and finally $2.71 billion in December 2025.
Meanwhile, other major suppliers maintained or expanded their presence. Saudi Arabia achieved remarkable growth of 61% in December 2025, delivering crude worth $1.75 billion. The United States recorded a 31% increase to $569.30 million. Iraq contributed $2.37 billion, up 4.56%, while the UAE supplied $1.65 billion, reflecting a 6% annual rise.
The erosion pattern coincides with the US imposition of a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods on August 27, 2025, designed to discourage purchases of sanctioned Russian petroleum. The tariff’s implementation date falls between July’s $3.62 billion in Russian crude imports and the subsequent months’ declining values, with December’s $2.71 billion representing a more than 35% drop from November.
India’s total crude oil imports from approximately 39 countries reached $11.29 billion in December 2025, up 9.1% from $10.34 billion in December 2024. Cumulative imports for April-December 2025 totaled $105.10 billion, compared to $109.33 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. The monthly progression demonstrates the dynamic nature of India’s crude sourcing.